That's what the subject line of my ABA Journal Tech Report email said. Ok, so somebody needs to go back to English 101, but it was referring to an article in the National Law Journal about a drop in litigation activity – and whether fear of e-discovery costs is the culprit.
Here's the ABA's take. Here's the Law Journal's take. Here's my take. This is a severe recession – certainly the worst I've experienced in my 46 years. As such, although there's a lot of anecdotal evidence floating around, I see more theorizing than fact. The projections that litigation would increase in this recession were likely overzealous, especially considering how many people have been let go at BigLaw.
The logic seems to be, "litigation rises during recessions, so it will do so again during this recession". That's great if you look backward and compare to milder recessions. I'm forward-looking. Here's what I see; a faux-recovery based on stimulus cash. We are at high risk of a double-dip, and I fear the second dip may actually be worse than the first.
Yes, I know this puts me at odds with Cramer.